This blog by the Met Office explores how air pollution levels have changed over time in the UK, what air quality is like in other countries, and what the future may hold for us.

Research shows the cleanliness of the air we breathe can fundamentally affect our health. While the air around us is predominately a mixture of nitrogen (~78%), oxygen (~20%) and water vapour (~1%), harmful gases and particulates are also present.

Air pollution is the largest environmental risk to UK public health, with between 28,000 and 36,000 deaths each year related to long-term exposure. It can also cause a range of health conditions, ranging from exacerbation of asthma to cardiovascular disease. So perhaps it’s unsurprising that neighbourhoods in England outside of London with lower levels of air pollution tend to have higher life expectancy.

A UK neighbourhood with some restrictions on motor vehicle access

‘A dynamic and changeable science problem’

The Met Office undertakes research into air quality in the UK and around the world, as well as providing the UK air pollution forecast. With the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Met Office co-leads the UK Clean Air Programme to tackle indoor and outdoor air quality for a healthier future.

Alastair Lewis is professor of atmospheric chemistry at the University of York and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science. Speaking at the 2024 Clean Air Conference,  explained that significant progress had been made in tackling UK air pollution, although some communities experience greater exposure due to their geographical location.   

Prof Lewis said: “Air pollution is a dynamic and changeable science problem. Historically we’ve solved real issues around coal combustion and formation of smog based around sulphur…We’ve lived through a period when road transport has been the key issue of the day. And there will be new challenges in the future.”

Professor Alastair Lewis speaking at the UK Clean Air Conference 2024 in Birmingham

Rapid declines in transport emissions

A pedestrian and cycle zone in the city of Sheffield

Emissions of many key air pollutants in the UK have declined rapidly during the past 50 years, including a significant reduction in road transport emissions since 1990.

Prof Lewis said: “Transport was an enormous source of problem pollutants in cities, especially up until 1990. But over a relatively short period of time, there have been steep reductions in tailpipe emissions of particulates. And these will continue to fall as a lot of road transport electrifies. They’ve reduced because of technological interventions that manage emissions in combination with regulations.”

Differentials in air pollution exposure across communities

Despite considerable reductions in sectoral emissions during the past 50 years, there are still challenges in the UK. Although air pollution affects everyone, there are emission disparities across regions and communities in the UK. Poor air quality can often more adversely affect people living in deprived areas.

Prof Lewis said: “Where you live in the UK has a profound influence over the air quality you experience. Those in the deprived groups receive far more emissions in their neighbourhoods than those in the least deprived groups, because of where, as a society, we choose to locate our emissions. It’s not just driven by higher levels of traffic in deprived communities, but comes from many other sources including domestic heating, construction and other industry.”

How UK air quality compares with other countries

A new tool was released in August 2024 to show the progress and challenges in tackling air pollution around the world. Scientists from the Met Office, the University of Leeds, the University of Edinburgh and North Carolina State University created the Air Quality Stripes to illustrate the range in concentrations of pollutants in global cities. The images produced by the tool show significant improvements in air quality across the UK and much of Europe, as well as deterioration in parts of Central Asia and Africa.

A graphic showing air pollution (PM2.5) concentrations from 1850 to 2021 in Birmingham, UK. The image indicates the level of emissions has reduced significantly since the 1960s.

The future of UK air quality

Climate change is a key factor affecting future air quality, both indoor and outdoor.  Hotter, drier summers in the UK are likely to trap pollutants and lead to increased emissions from wildfires. The UK’s transition to Net Zero should continue to reduce air pollution in many sectors, especially through road transport and domestic heating – a co-benefit of taking action on climate change. More research will be needed to monitor and model pollutants to continue improving UK air quality for everyone.  

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